World Bank cuts 2016 global growth forecast to 2.4%

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The move is due to sluggish growth in advanced economies, stubbornly low commodity prices, weak global trade, and diminishing capital flows.

According to the latest update of its Global Economic Prospects report, commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies have struggled to adapt to lower prices for oil and other key commodities, and this accounts for half of the downward revision.

Growth in these economies is projected to advance at a meager 0.4% pace this year, a downward revision of 1.2 percentage points from the January outlook.

“This sluggish growth underscores why it’s critically important for countries to pursue policies that will boost economic growth and improve the lives of those living in extreme poverty,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim, “Economic growth remains the most important driver of poverty reduction, and that’s why we’re very concerned that growth is slowing sharply in commodity-exporting developing countries due to depressed commodity prices.”

Commodity-importing emerging markets and developing economies have been more resilient than exporters, although the benefits of lower prices for energy and other commodities have been slow to materialize.

These economies are forecast to expand at a 5.8% rate in 2016, down modestly from the 5.9% pace estimated for 2015, as low energy prices and the modest recovery in advanced economies support economic activity.

Among major emerging market economies, China is forecast to grow at 6.7% in 2016 after 6.9% last year.

India’s robust economic expansion is expected to hold steady at 7.6%, while Brazil and Russia are projected to remain in deeper recessions than forecast in January. South Africa is forecast to grow at a 0.6% rate in 2016, 0.8 of a percentage point more slowly than the January forecast.

A significant increase in private sector credit – fueled by an era of low interest rates and, more recently, rising financing needs -- raise potential risks for several emerging market and developing economies, the report finds.

In an environment of anemic growth, the global economy faces pronounced risks, including a further slowdown in major emerging markets, sharp changes in financial market sentiment, stagnation in advanced economies, a longer-than-expected period of low commodity prices, geopolitical risks in different parts of the world, and concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy in spurring stronger growth../.

Source: WB/VOV