Seeking driving force for 2023 economic growth

Growth exceeds forecast

In 2022, the positive growth of the Vietnamese economy exceeded the forecasts of domestic and foreign economists and organizations. In the first three quarters of the year, Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased 8.83 percent compared with the same period of 2021 - the highest nine-month GDP growth since 2011. Notably, in the third quarter, according to data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, the GDP grew 13.67 percent year-on-year. The 2022 annual GDP growth was forecast to reach eight percent, exceeding the 6.5 percent target set by the National Assembly and the Government.

Vietnam’s 2022 economic growth was attributed first of all to the Government’s management efforts. Notably, Vietnam received global recognition for its flexibility in coping with the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccinations. In October 2021, the Government issued Resolution 128/NQ-CP on safe and flexible adaption to COVID-19, reopening the economy for recovery and resuming growth.

In 2022, the Government also maintained macroeconomic stability. In the context of unprecedented inflation in many countries, Vietnam successfully curbed the inflation rate at below four percent. The participation in new-generation free trade agreements (FTAs) has helped Vietnam maintain and even increase exports despite the impact of China’s Zero COVID policy on exports to this market. The 2022 annual import-export value is predicted to reach US$700 billion, a new record compared with US$668.5 billion in 2021.

However, the impressive economic growth of the first three quarters of 2022, especially the third quarter, can hardly be maintained in 2023 and ensuing years. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Vietnam’s GDP growth slowed down. To achieve the 6.5-percent growth target set by the National Assembly for 2023, the Government, ministries and localities should take timely and flexible measures in response to changes in the domestic and global economic situation.

Driving force for 2023 growth

To maintain macroeconomic stability in 2023, Vietnam is pursuing the goal of curbing inflation at below 4.5 percent. However, inflation control requires tightened fiscal and monetary policies, which will hinder business access to capital resources for production expansion. Therefore, flexible inflation control is necessary to promote economic growth in 2023.

The business community contributes significantly to Vietnam’s economic growth. To facilitate business operations, the government, ministries and localities should further improve the investment and business environment, restrict inspections and create favorable conditions for business access to loans with low interest rates. Reducing land rent and taxes for businesses through the Government’s Economic Recovery and Development Program is one of the measures to help Vietnam maintain economic growth in 2023 and ensuing years.

Notably, it is necessary to accelerate public investment disbursement due to its heavy impact on the entire economy, the liquidity of credit institutions and business access to capital resources.