Power Planning VII ensures sustainable development

Adjustments in the National Power Development Planning VII will ensure sustainable socioeconomic development

Planning adjustment needed

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s report, during the 2011-2015 period, socioeconomic situation witnessed changes with gross domestic product growth of around 5.91 percent. Some power plant projects lagged behind schedule, while building transmission systems and connecting to the national grid faced difficulties due to a lack of capital and slow works in compensation and ground clearance. In addition, coal supplies remained limited, while the national energy-saving program was strengthened and power prices were increased for several times. Therefore, the National Power Development Planning VII did not achieve the successes.

Growth in power loads remained lower compared to forecasts in the last five years. Commercial power output increased by an average of 10.6 percent a year against a forecast of 14.1 percent, while power generation and its maximum capacity increased by 10.4 percent a year on average compared to forecasted 13.9 percent. In addition, the development of new energy sources reached 90 percent of the annual plan. Commercial power reached an estimated 143.3 billion kWh with maximum capacity of 25,300 MW in 2015, a shortfall of 5,500 MW compared to forecasts.

Therefore adjustments in the National Power Development Planning VII are needed in order to optimize the exploitation of resources to provide sufficient power for the country’s socioeconomic development.

Adjusted contents

The Ministry of Industry and Trade has adopted solutions to adjust the plans in order to more effectively use primary energy sources for power production and promote investment in power development in accordance with its demand in each region. The development of renewable energy is seen as a possible way to ensure national energy security and reduce the negative impacts on the environment and encourage fair competition in the power sector.

Commercial power output and electricity production are expected to increase by 10.4 percent and 10.1 percent a year for the 2016-2020 period and around eight percent a year for the 2021-2030 period in order to serve the GDP growth target of around seven percent a year during the 2016-2030 period. It means that commercial power would reach 228-245 billion kWh by 2020, 337-379 billion kWh by 2025 and 456-506 billion kWh by 2030.

Supplying sufficient power for the south and meeting technical standards following N-1 criteria are the two main goals for the 2016-2020 period.

Total capital for power development excluding BOT energy sources for the 2016-2030 period would reach around US$148 billion (US$7.9-10.8 billion a year on average). Three quarters of the capital is used for the construction of energy sources, while the remainder is intended for developing the power grid in each period./.

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