IMF forecasts stable growth for ASEAN 5 in 2018

Illustrative image - Source: VNA

The ASEAN 5 here comprises Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

The IMF kept the projected global growth at 3.9 percent for 2018 and the next year as in the April 2018 WEO, but noted that the expansion is becoming less even, and risks to the outlook are mounting.

It said the rate of expansion appears to have peaked in some major economies and growth has become less synchronized.

The WEO forecast that the US economy will expand by 2.9 percent in 2018 and 2.7 percent in 2019. It also revised down growth of the euro zone economy, Japan and the UK at 2.2 percent, 1 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively, lower than the previous forecast of 2.4 percent, 1.2 percent and 1.6 percent.

Among emerging market and developing economies, growth prospects are also becoming more uneven, amid rising oil prices, escalating trade tensions, and market pressures on the currencies of some economies with weaker fundamentals. Growth projections have been revised down for Argentina, Brazil, and India, while the outlook for some oil exporters has strengthened.

Emerging and developing Asia is expected to maintain its robust performance, growing at 6.5 percent in 2018 and 2019. Growth in China is projected to moderate from 6.9 percent in 2017 to 6.6 percent in 2018 and 6.4 percent in 2019, as regulatory tightening of the financial sector takes hold and external demand softens.

India’s growth rate is expected to rise from 6.7 percent in 2017 to 7.3 percent in 2018 and 7.5 percent in 2019, as drags from the currency exchange initiative and the introduction of the goods and services tax fade.