GDP to grow 6.5 percent in 2015

What are your views on the growth of the Vietnamese economy in the first eight months and your prediction for its annual growth?

Vietnam’s GDP grew 6.08 percent in the first quarter and 6.44 percent in the second quarter. In the first half of this year, the growth was 6.28 percent, more than one percentage point higher compared with the same period last year. These were positive results. Since 2010, Vietnam’s GDP has grown on a quarterly basis. In fact, economic growth in the second halves of recent years was higher compared with the first halves. So, if this trend continues with no changes, GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters will be higher compared with the first and second quarters, and the annual growth is predicted to reach about 6.5 percent.

If this prediction comes true, it will be the highest GDP growth since 2011 and is expected to create momentum for further growth in 2016 and ensuing years (the GDP growth was 5.92 percent in the first half of 2011; 4.93 percent in 2012; 4.90 percent in 2013; and 5.28 percent in 2014).

Do you think 6.5 percent is a high or low annual GDP growth rate predicted for 2015? What must we do to achieve higher growth?

I think it is low and believe Vietnam still has great potential for economic growth. To achieve higher growth, however, along with maintaining macroeconomic stability, we need to promote economic restructuring and microeconomic reforms. First of all, we need to increase investment, use resources more effectively, and increase labor productivity along with promoting institutional reforms so that the capital, land and labor markets, but not compulsory administrative orders, can become major factors deciding the distribution of resources.

Data from the Ministry of Planning and Investment show that in the first eight months of this year, Vietnam faced a trade deficit of US$3.6 billion. What do you think must be done to cut it?

I think the trade deficit is a structural issue that can’t be dealt with through macroeconomic measures or short-term decisions. To curb the trade deficit, it is necessary to enhance the competitiveness of domestic businesses and Vietnamese goods in order to increase exports.

What policies will we need from now until the year’s end to maintain macroeconomic stability?

The government has put in place adequate short-term policies in terms of macroeconomic management, inflation, investment, and disbursement, which have had good effects and need to be maintained until the year’s end. However, I think we need medium and long-term policies. Micro-structural changes will help improve market operations and state management, promoting the growth of the Vietnamese economy and its integration into the global economy.

Nguyen Hoa