GDP growth to likely exceed 6.8 percent target

The processing and manufacturing industry makes a major contribution to Vietnam’s economic growth

The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased 2.02 percent, while industry and construction grew 9.36 percent, services soared 6.85 percent, the processing and manufacturing industry improved 11.37 percent, and the mining industry experienced a slight increase of 2.68 percent after many consecutive years of decline.

According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO), GDP in the first nine months of 2019 grew an estimated 6.98 percent over the same period last year, while the first nine month GDP growth was 6.03, 5.1, 5.14, 5.53, 6.53, 5.99, 6.41 and 6.96 each year from 2011-2018.

GSO General Director Nguyen Bich Lam said that in the context of slowing world economic growth due to increasing challenges, the unpredictable US-China trade war, and growing geopolitical tensions, the 6.98 percent growth emphasized the timeliness and efficiency of the Vietnamese government’s directions, as well as authorities’ efforts at all levels to implement socioeconomic development plans.

Nguyen Minh Cuong, Principal Country Economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said domestic demand that has increased on a sustainable basis is the bright spot in Vietnam’s economic growth. In particular, domestic companies have contributed more to the country’s export value. If this trend continues, it will signal a shift from dependence on foreign enterprises to reliance on domestic enterprises, Cuong said.

To reach the 6.8 percent GDP growth target, according to GSO General Director Nguyen Bich Lam, Vietnam must reach a GDP growth of 6.45 percent in the fourth quarter, of which the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector is expected to increase 1.98 percent, industry and construction 7.38 percent, and the service sector 7.03 percent. However, the livestock sector experienced a growth of minus 0.61 percent in the first nine months due to the impact of African Swine Fever (ASF), while the sector’s initial scenario was a 4.31 percent growth.

“Therefore, to achieve the 2019 GDP growth target, industry and market service sectors must accelerate to make up for the shortage of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector,” Lam said.