Strong GDP growth, low inflation forecast for 2016

17:23 | 30/01/2016 Economy- Society

Viet Nam's gross domestic product (GDP) will likely grow 6.82 per cent this year, 0.12 percentage points higher than that predicted by the National Assembly last November in its resolution on the socio-economic development plan for 2016, the Centre Institute of Economic Management (CIEM) said yesterday.

Strong GDP growth, low inflation forecast for 2016

CIEM predicts that the consumer price index will increase 4.4 per cent, trade will grow 10.4 per cent with a trade deficit of US$4.1 billion — VNA/VNS Photo Hoang Hai

A study by CIEM called "Viet Nam's Economy: 2015 Performance, 2016 Outlook" released yesterday said that there is a high possibility for the country to realise its goals in GDP growth and total social development investment, which is targeted to equal to 31 per cent of GDP this year.

However, it needs to reconsider other goals, such as keeping the consumer price index growth below 5 percent while increasing import-export turnover by 10 per cent.

CIEM predicts that the consumer price index will increase 4.4 per cent, trade will grow 10.4 per cent with a trade deficit of US$4.1 billion.

The study points out advantages for the country's economy this year including continued economic restructuring, deeper international integration with the signed or to-be-signed free trade agreements and more public investment as 2016 is the first year Viet Nam applies a medium-term investment frame for 2016 to 2020.

However, the country will face challenges from unstable economies including slow economic growth, capital withdrawal from emerged markets and falling prices in world commodity markets, particularly key export products of Viet Nam.

Moreover, challenges could lie on changing business policies, pressure on the currency exchange and domestic interest rate, especially if the US dollar and interest rates increase.

There remains risk of inflation because of on-going State budget overspending, higher prices of goods and services like healthcare and education, higher business costs as firms pay more social insurance.

"Improvement of the business climate is very important to business," the study says, calling for fair and healthy competition for both private and State-owned enterprises, both Vietnamese and foreign firms.

Economist Le Dang Doanh said that last year saw difficulties for the agriculture sector – one of major pillars of Viet Nam's economy but farming was still small-scaled, farmers cared little about marketing and distribution networks were modest.

He also noted that employers complained over the quality of human resources and workers working discipline./.

 

Source:  VNS

 

 

 

 

Theo ven.vn