2016 economic forecasts

11:31 | 23/01/2016 Economy- Society

(VEN) - The Vietnamese economy and export-import activities are forecasted to be more optimistic from 2016 onwards.

2016 economic forecasts

Dr. Dang Duc Anh from the Department of Macro Analysis and Forecast under the Ministry of Planning and Investment’s National Center for Socioeconomic Information and Forecast: The Vietnamese economy enters a new period of recovery

The Vietnamese economy is expected to strongly increase from 2016 onwards thanks to low prices of goods and services and the effectiveness of institutional reforms. In particular, the industry and construction sector promises to create a breakthrough and plays a key role in the recovery of the economy.

Export-import activities continue to record good growth thanks to the global demand, while trade and investments will be on a rise after bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements take effect. In addition, material, machinery and equipment imports will enhance due to an increase in domestic production needs.

Three scenarios for Vietnam’s economic prospects may happen including the high scenario (less likely to occur) with economic growth and inflation of 7.04 percent and 6.1 percent, the medium scenario (a key scenario) with those figures of 6.67 percent and around five percent, and the low scenario with the rates of six percent and over seven percent.

Economist Nguyen Huy Hoang: The new enterprise and investment laws facilitate businesses

The introduction of the 2014 Enterprise Law and the 2014 Investment Law was highly appreciated by domestic and foreign businesses. However, the government and ministries need to issue guidance for the two laws on schedule. In addition, organizing training courses to let businesses know about the new laws, avoiding complications against businesses and investors, reviewing and amending legal documents to unite regulations following international laws and developing sanctions to penalize violations are needed.

 

Dr. Duong Dinh Giam from the Vietnam Economic Association: Vietnam has many opportunities to become the world’s new factory

Vietnam needs to devise short and long-term solutions with a focus on developing support industries. In addition, manufacturers have to adopt appropriate strategies to gradually improve supply capacity for each kind of products. Promoting investment in infrastructure including transport and industrial zones and clusters, and selecting key industries to provide high-quality processing products for the world market are mentioned as necessary.

In terms of investment attraction, Vietnam needs to discuss about the support and technology transfer with foreign investors. Regarding sectors that not requiring special technologies, the country doesn’t need to provide incentives.

Institute of Leadership and Management Director Nguyen Khac Hung: Leaders must have strategic thinking and long-term vision

To begin participation in the world market, Vietnamese companies need to completely change measures to realize values through developing products, services and brands. Vietnamese leaders have not yet built their own style and they must develop a leadership style based on their culture and level.

Administration skills and business secrets are needed in the context of international economic integration.

Economist Vu Dinh Anh: Vietnam needs to make the most of opportunities

In the context of fiercer competition, each region, company and laborer must know about its advantage, while operational mechanisms of management agencies must also follow international standards. In addition, the government and the state ensure the issuing of regulations in order to promote the development and enhancing advantages of businesses.

Regarding capital raise for investment, Vietnam needs to transform into a new economic growth model based on labor productivity instead of cheap labor costs and natural resources and adopt mechanisms and policies in using investment capital as its flows will only pour into sectors that have had the highest security and proved efficiency.

Economist Nguyen Thanh Binh: Demand on imported products will fall if quality of Vietnamese goods becomes better

Demand on imported products has begun from the subsidy period. However its demand has witnessed a change over the time as made-in-Vietnam garments and textiles, food and foodstuff have attracted the interests of consumers.

Together with the signing of free trade agreements and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Vietnam is expected to attract more investment capital into the manufacturing sector. In addition, many foreign manufacturers have moved their factories to Vietnam. Therefore, demand on imported products will fall if quality of Vietnamese goods becomes better./.

 

Quang Loc

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